TRUMP’S ERRATIC AND SELF-SERVING LEADERSHIP IS A RECKLESS GAMBLE THAT ISRAEL CANNOT AFFORD TO RISK
#1 IN A SERIES OF OPEN SOURCE RESEARCH MEMOS PUBLISHED SEPTEMBER 20, 2024
Many American supporters of Israel have come to believe that Donald Trump enacted only favorable foreign policy during his term as President, given the Abraham Accords, termination of the JCPOA “Iran deal,” relocation of the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, and the assassination of General Soleimani. So convincing is this list of accomplishments that undecided voters are now wondering if a vote against Trump is a betrayal of Israel, despite widespread acknowledgment that Trump’s character is antithetical to core Jewish values. This narrative however ignores the facts of chaotic foreign policy decisions during his Presidency and his volatile rhetoric.
For Israel, a nation surrounded by enemies and relying on the steadfast support of its allies, Trump’s volatile behavior is an existential risk. Trump has shown time and again that he is willing to sacrifice alliances and renege on promise if it suits his immediate interests. Israel cannot afford to gamble its security on his whim.
"If Trump is re-elected, that will be a catastrophe for the United States and the free world.”
- Shabtai Shavit, Head of Mossad (1989-96) and Iran expert, 2020
“Trump’s support for Israel in the first term is not guaranteed in the second term, because Trump’s positions are made on the basis of what’s good for Donald Trump, not on some coherent theory of national security.”
- John Bolton, Trump’s National Security Advisor 2018-19, quoted in NY Times, 2024 SINCE 10/7,
TRUMP FLATTERED ISRAEL’S ADVERSARIES AND INSULTED ITS LEADERS
- Trump stated just a few days after 10/7, “Hezbollah is very smart” and called Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant a “jerk”. Trump then griped, in a non sequitur and apparent breach of previously undisclosed classified information: “I’ll never forget that Bibi Netanyahu let us down. [by allegedly declining to participate in the assassination of Solemani] That was a very terrible thing.” Source A and Source B.
- In July 2024 he proudly shared a ‘get well’ note, sent to him by PA leader Mahmoud Abbas after his ear was injured in an assassination attempt, that (hypocritically, coming from a man who administers the infamous “Pay for Slay” program to reward terrorism against Israel) read “acts of violence must not have a place in a world of law and order”; Trump added a fatuous reply hand-written in Sharpie: “Mahmoud – So nice – Thank you – Everything will be good / Best Wishes”; Trump bizarrely posted Abbas’ note with his reply to Truth Social just hours before his private meeting with Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago. Source.
…WHILE TELLING ISRAEL TO “GET IT OVER WITH FAST”
- In March 2024, at a sensitive moment for Israel, while actively pushing to block Congressional approval of the then-pending critical $14 billion Israel security aid bill, Trump told Netanyahu-aligned Israeli newspaper Israel Hayom: “You have to finish up your war. You have to finish it up. You’ve got to get it done. We’ve got to get to peace. You can’t have this going on, and I will say Israel has to be very careful because you are losing a lot of the world. You are losing a lot of support… It’s a very bad picture for the world. I think Israel wanted to show that it’s tough, but sometimes you shouldn’t be doing that." Source.
- In an April 2024 radio interview, Trump revealed self-serving impatience for Israel’s ongoing war effort: “Get it over with and let’s get back to peace and stop killing people. And that’s a very simple statement. They have to get it done. Get it over with and get it over with fast because we have to -- you have to get back to normalcy and peace… I’m not sure that I’m loving the way they’re doing it, because you’ve got to have victory. You have to have a victory, and it’s taking a long time …Israel is absolutely losing the PR war." Source.
- In response to Trump’s comments, John Podhoretz, editor of conservative Jewish political magazine Commentary, said: “Those who support Trump and also are deeply supportive of Israel’s efforts to win the war with Hamas have to reconcile themselves with the fact that at a crucial moment when the administration seems to be speaking out of both sides of its mouth, and creating a sense of instability in the relationship between the United States and Israel, Trump exacerbated that instability as the putative nominee of the other party.” Source.
TRUMP LASHED OUT AT NETANYAHU AND AMERICAN JEWS FOR ACCEPTING BIDEN’S WIN
- Trump blasted Netanyahu for the ‘disloyalty’ of having accepted and congratulated Biden on his victory in the 2020 U.S. election: “Nobody did more for Bibi. And I liked Bibi. I still like Bibi. But I also like loyalty... Bibi could have stayed quiet. He has made a terrible mistake … I haven’t spoken to him since. F**k him.” Source.
- Trump claimed, “the evangelical Christians love Israel more than the Jews in this country… It used to be that Israel had absolute power over Congress, and today I think it’s the exact opposite. … I’ve said this for a long time, the Jewish people in the United States either don’t like Israel or don’t care about Israel.” Source.
TRUMP SAID HE MOVED THE U.S. EMBASSY TO JERUSALEM FOR EVANGELICALS NOT JEWS
- Trump stated: “We moved the capital of Israel to Jerusalem. That’s for the evangelicals. You know, it’s amazing with that: the evangelicals are more excited about that than Jewish people.” Source
- Trump invited controversial Pentecostal televangelist John Hagee to give the benediction at the opening of the new U.S. embassy in Jerusalem in 2018; Hagee claimed that he convinced Trump to move the embassy by telling Trump at a White House dinner that (following the prophesized battle of Armageddon in Israel) Jesus is coming back to Jerusalem to “set up His throne on the Temple Mount where He will sit and rule for a thousand years of perfect peace” and that the move would bring Trump “political immortality”. Source
TRUMP’S LEGACY IN AFGHANISTAN WAS A DISASTROUS CAPITULATION TO THE TALIBAN
- Trump came up with the idea, and over the objections of advisors extended an official invitation, for a summit with the Taliban leadership at Camp David in 2019, to be held just a few days before the 9/11 anniversary. The plan fell apart after an American solider in Afghanistan was killed by a suicide bombing days before the summit was to take place. Source
- Trump is responsible for the disastrous February 2020 “Doha Agreement” deal that his administration negotiated with the Taliban, which legitimized the Taliban as Afghanistan’s controlling power, eased sanctions on Taliban leaders, released 5,000 dangerous Taliban prisoners, provided no protection for women’s rights in Afghanistan, and led directly to the collapse of the Afghan government. Trump on the day of the signing said, “I really believe the Taliban… I’ll be meeting personally with Taliban leaders in the not-too-distant future”. Meanwhile at the signing ceremony in Afghanistan, Taliban members shouted “Allahu Akbar!”. Source A and Source B
- On March 3, 2020 Trump remarked in a press conference following his phone call with the leader of the Taliban: “The relationship is very good that I have with the Mullah.” Source
- During the September 2024 presidential debate, Trump elaborated: “I got involved. And Abdul is the head of the Taliban. He is still the head of the Taliban,” Trump said. [In fact the head of the Taliban since 2016 is Hibatullah Akhundzada.] “And I told Abdul, ‘Don’t do it anymore. You do it anymore, you’re going to have problems.’ And he said, ‘Why do you send me a picture of my house?’ I said, ‘You’re going to have to figure that out, Abdul.’ And for 18 months we had nobody killed. [In fact there was no 18 month period during Trump’s term without U.S. military fatalities.]” Source
TRUMP GOT COLD FEET AFTER THREATENING IRAN, ABORTED AN IN-PROGRESS STRIKE
- In May 2019 three tankers were damaged by Iran-linked mines in the Persian Gulf and a pro-Iranian militia allegedly fired a rocket that landed near the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad; in response Trump tweeted “If Iran wants to fight, that will be the official end of Iran” and threatened that continued incidents would cause Iran to “suffer greatly” – however following the June 2019 destruction of two tankers in the Persian Gulf by IRGC mines, Trump failed to follow through on his threats, instead only introducing cosmetic sanctions and sending only 1,500 of the US troops requested by the military to the region. Source
- In June 2019, after rejecting smaller scale options proposed by the military, President Trump abruptly called off (without consulting any senior officials) a sea-to-ground missile strike on Iran military facilities that he had authorized in response to the downing by the IRGC of a U.S. drone, just 10 minutes before the attack was to occur; Trump then inexplicably publicized his flip-flop via Twitter the next day writing that the aborted strike (which would have without Trump’s Tweet remained top secret) had been “cocked and loaded”. Trump instead opted for a cyberattack. Source
- In an interview with Fox News about this aborted strike, Trump explained: “I said: you know what, they shot down an unmanned drone – plane – whatever you want to call it, and here we are sitting with 150 dead people [i.e. potential IRGC casualties at the Iranian missile base that was to be targeted], that would have taken place probably within half an hour, and I didn’t like it, I didn’t think it was proportionate.” Source
- The January 2020 drone assassination of IRGC General Qasem Soleimani took place in Iraq not in Iran, was executed in relation to planned attacks on U.S. military in the region, and had nothing to do with protection of Israel; per Trump, Israel declined to cooperate in the assassination, believing it to be a risky escalation. Source